An assessment of the macroeconomic forecasts for the Maltese economy prepared by the Ministry for Finance in April 2016

Abstract

This report presents an evaluation of macroeconomic forecasts prepared by the Ministry for Finance for presentation in the Update of the Stability Programme to the European Commission in April 2016. In the process, the report also evaluates the main assumptions adopted by the Ministry for Finance which underpin this current forecast. The Malta Fiscal Advisory Council is of the view that on the basis of the latest available information, the projected increase in the headline real GDP figure for 2016 and the other forecast years may indeed be achievable. Following the exceptional rate of GDP growth registered for 2015, there is now an expectation for a sustained rate of growth within the economy for the forthcoming years, a growth rate which is expected to be positive but at a lower level when compared to the rates registered for 2015. The projections reviewed in this report are in line with the view of other institutions, particularly the Central Bank of Malta and the European Commission who also provide their macroeconomic estimates for a number of key variables for the years under analysis.