From counterintelligence to the dynamic network analysis : new ways of countering emerging threats (organised crime, drug trafficking, terrorism)

Abstract

"Counterintelligence (C.I.) theories and methodologies for studying and tackling criminal organisations: analysis and assessment". Transnational criminal organisations are becoming the fundamental players in destabilising the balance of the global chessboard. By now, intelligence institutions consider actions to counteract organised crime a priority, seeing them as unconventional threats. The scope of this dissertation is to put the problem of defining a criminal organisation into perspective, to find the basic elements that distinguish them and the factors to be considered in an analysis. We have to focus on the problem of identifying the organisational structure of a criminal organisation as being the point of departure for countering actions, seeing whether or not network or hierarchical structure typologies, or other models, are applicable in real life. We shall see that by now the majority of criminal organisations are based on a network that offers a low profile, greater flexibility and redundancy where, if a sector of the network is compromised, it does not compromise the work of the rest of the structure. This goes to prove that the investigation paradigm - that saw the criminal organisation with a strictly hierarchical and summit-oriented structure - is now partially obsolete and incorrect and if we want to have a truly effective countering action, both law-enforcement and intelligence agents must abandon this summit-oriented conception. This aspect, being fully aware that in all conflicts between organised crime and the law the "symbiosis" phenomenon exists, is dictated by the need of both parties to have more information about their adversary and to control or compromise activities.