Responsiveness of food security to macroeconomic variables : the cases of Maldives, Mauritius and Seychelles

Abstract

This paper investigates into the major macroeconomic variables influencing food security at national level in three Indian Ocean Small Island Developing States (SIDS): Maldives, Mauritius and Seychelles. Food stability – a measure of food security responsiveness – is estimated within the framework of cointegration and error correction model (ECM) to differentiate the short run and long run elasticities. There is evidence that food security comoves with the explanatory variables in our model in the long run. The results unveil the importance of trade openness, investment in the agriculture sector, domestic food production (measured in terms of quantity, quality and variety) and structural transformation in enhancing food stability. In contrast, economic growth measured by GDP per capita worsens food security in Maldives and Mauritius in the long run. The ECM results suggest that changes in food security brought about by its determinants are cancelled out fastest in the Maldives; suggesting serious difficulties in securing a more sustainable food security strategy. The results of this study generate policy recommendations, which can also be adapted to the context of other SIDS.