Investigating causality and market contagion during periods of financial distress and its implications

Abstract

PURPOSE: A notable observation in the literature of financial markets is the debate on market contagion and causality. During periods of financial distress, global financial markets experience record low market prices partly due to the spread of fear. It was therefore necessary to investigate market contagions using causality relationships during periods of financial distress.

METHODOLOGY: A unit root test, Granger causality and Test for equality of means was used as the blueprint. The sample periods where December 1, 2007 to June 30, 2009 and January 1, 2020 to December 31, 2021.

FINDINGS: Contrary to the perceptions that prevails in most stock markets during distress, there was little empirical evidence to support market contagions. Although very few markets are indeed related.

ORIGINALITY/VALUE: The implications of this study extends the efficient market hypothesis concept to market efficiency during periods of financial distress. It is evident that financial markets display greater efficiencies during periods of financial distress. This study is the first to investigate market contagion during periods of distress as per author’s knowledge.