Modelling the energy sector in Ukraine with RES development scenarios

Abstract

PURPOSE: The aim of the article is to identify possible scenarios for RES development to meet the socio-economic and environmental requirements of Ukraine. The research question which the authors asked was about possibility and timeframe of RES development in Ukraine within the defined scenarios.

DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH: The research gap identified by the authors includes the development of scenarios for RES development as a component of the entire energy sector using the MARKAL/TIMES model. The paper presents the results of research conducted using a variety of research methods and tools, including a critical analysis of literature, an integrated MARKAL/TIMES model generator, scenario analysis based on an optimalisation model and a linear regression model. The research extends over the period 2018-2021.

FINDINGS: The results confirmed that the development of RES according to the indicated scenarios, which assume the progressive substitution of non-renewable energy sources in Ukraine until 2050, will allow to meet the demand at different times and make the Ukrainian economy coherent with the low-carbon plans of the EU economies. However, it should be emphasised that the results obtained must be verified after the end of the war operations on Ukrainian territory, taking into account the existing situation of the energy sector infrastructure and potential changes in Ukraine's economic policy priorities.

PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: Regarding Ukraine's aspirations for EU membership, there is a need to model the country's energy sector in terms of its ability to contribute to sustainable development.

ORIGINALITY/VALUE: In practice, modelling for the energy sector and its actors and energy market stakeholders is sometimes used in the definition of the country's macroeconomic strategic objectives, which stimulate and are intended to help reform and transform economies in line with global trends and international law.