Demographic and technological factors shaping the labour market in Poland on the threshold of the fourth industrial revolution

Abstract

PURPOSE: The purpose of this article is to identify and assess the main trends in the Polish labour market in the years 2008-2020 and to answer the question to what extent changes in the labour market are caused by technological and demographic factors.

DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH: The dynamic changes taking place in the contemporary labour market are related to demographic and technological factors. They cause a number of problems in the area of employment. The technological factors shaping Economy 4.0 give rise to fears about the human presence being eliminated from the labour market. The analysis is based on the data of the Central Statistical Office.

FINDINGS: The study indicates that demographic changes play a vital role in achieving priority objectives related to the growth of employment and its quality. It is a result of transformations in the number and structure of the Polish population. Furthermore, the study emphasises the importance of technological factors. Also, it pays attention to the structure of employment in particular sectors, as well as IT-related industries; it gives the number of employees by age and indicates their multi-generational character, and it mentions the alarming social process of ageing. The structure of employment is undergoing transformations due to the need for changes in qualifications and competencies.

PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: The analysis makes it possible to conclude that the Polish labour market faces the prospect of shrinking labour resources, which is a great challenge for the economy, considering that most labour market indicators depend not only on changes in employment, but also on the supply of labour resources, i.e., changes in the number and structure of the population. Other crucial factors include the level and structure of education of employees, who should have knowledge and qualifications in the field of IT to work in Economy 4.0. In the manufacturing process, the risk of eliminating humans and replacing them with robots is increasing.

ORIGINALITY/VALUE: The current study is one of the first analysis of the emerging labour market in Poland on the threshold of the fourth industrial revolution.