Perceived corruption and electoral patterns in Portugal and Bulgaria

Abstract

This paper assesses the impact perceived corruption has on the electoral patterns of countries from the European Union’s (EU) periphery, in this case, Portugal and Bulgaria, in the period 2009-2022. The main research approach is a case study that analyzes political events, electoral swings and voter participation in elections for the national legislature and the European Parliament. The main empirical data on corruption is gathered from the Eurobarometer and the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) of Transparency International. Data on voter turnout is taken from the International Institute for Democracy and Assistance (IDEA). Findings suggest that voter turnout decreases in countries with higher and constant levels of perceived corruption. The data doesn’t indicate a clear cause-and-effect link between high levels of corruption and the rise of populist parties. Secondary findings suggest that the EU’s periphery perceives corruption differently compared to the Union average.