A scenario analysis for the decarbonisation process in Poland’s road transport sector

Abstract

PURPOSE: This study attempts to identify the progress of the decarbonisation process in the Polish road transport sector. Its main aim is to present potential future scenarios, allowing for the technological, economic, socio-demographic, legal-political environment in three time horizons, i.e., 2025, 2030 and 2035.

DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH: This study is based on secondary data sources, primarily the literature of the subject and statistical data presented in industrial reports. The methods applied include scenario analysis and the deductive method.

FINDINGS: The scenario analysis led to the conclusion that the progress of the decarbonisation in the Polish road transport sector is insufficient to ensure that the targets set by the European Commission are met. To date, however, road transport is the only sector in which greenhouse gas emissions have risen over the past three decades – by a staggering 33%.

PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: The analyses show the variants in which each environmental component impacts the decarbonisation process. Studies of this kind may constitute a clear message for the decision-makers to focus action on selected types of environment which have the greatest positive effect on road transport emission performance.

ORIGINALITY/VALUE: The situation emerging from the analyses points to the direction and areas on which Poland should put the greatest emphasis. Comprehensive identification of three possible scenario variants and their effect on the progress of decarbonisation in the road transport sector enables us to determine future limitations to achieving the EU’s climate policy goals.