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DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.author | Micallef, Joseph | - |
dc.contributor.author | Grima, Simon | - |
dc.contributor.author | Spiteri, Jonathan | - |
dc.contributor.author | Rupeika-Apoga, Ramona | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2023-09-22T07:20:10Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2023-09-22T07:20:10Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2023 | - |
dc.identifier.citation | Micallef, J., Grima, S., Spiteri, J., & Rupeika-Apoga, R. (2023). Assessing the Causality Relationship between the Geopolitical Risk Index and the Agricultural Commodity Markets. Risks, 11(5), 84. | en_GB |
dc.identifier.uri | https://www.um.edu.mt/library/oar/handle/123456789/113232 | - |
dc.description.abstract | The aim of this study was to investigate the Granger causality between geopolitical risk (GPR) sub-indices in order to examine the implications of geopolitical risk on ten agricultural commodities classified as softs or grains. The Granger causality test was used to determine the causal relationship between the daily GPR sub-indices and the future prices of ten essential agricultural commodities from 31 March 2000 to 31 March 2022. We discovered that the GPR Threat and Act sub-indices Granger-caused changes in the wheat and oat commodity prices. These findings were also connected to the ongoing Russian–Ukrainian conflict, which has had an impact on agricultural commodity prices because both countries are major agricultural producers. The empirical results also showed how the GPR Threat sub-index Granger-affected the future prices of soybean oil, coffee, wheat, and oats. On the other hand, the GPR Act sub-index only Granger-affected the future price of oats. The findings of this study should provide useful information to both policymakers and governments to help them acknowledge the importance of geopolitical risk when setting their national policies related to food security. | en_GB |
dc.language.iso | en | en_GB |
dc.publisher | MDPI AG | en_GB |
dc.rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess | en_GB |
dc.subject | Geopolitics -- Economic aspects | en_GB |
dc.subject | Commodity exchanges -- Econometric models | en_GB |
dc.subject | Produce trade -- Econometric models | en_GB |
dc.subject | Grain -- Economic aspects | en_GB |
dc.subject | Agriculture -- Risk management | en_GB |
dc.title | Assessing the causality relationship between the geopolitical risk index and the agricultural commodity markets | en_GB |
dc.type | article | en_GB |
dc.rights.holder | The copyright of this work belongs to the author(s)/publisher. The rights of this work are as defined by the appropriate Copyright Legislation or as modified by any successive legislation. Users may access this work and can make use of the information contained in accordance with the Copyright Legislation provided that the author must be properly acknowledged. Further distribution or reproduction in any format is prohibited without the prior permission of the copyright holder. | en_GB |
dc.description.reviewed | peer-reviewed | en_GB |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.3390/risks11050084 | - |
dc.publication.title | Risks | en_GB |
Appears in Collections: | Scholarly Works - FacEMAIns |
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Assessing the causality relationship between the geopolitical risk index and the agricultural commodity markets 2023.pdf | 432.12 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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