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Title: | Joint effect of heat and air pollution on mortality in 620 cities of 36 countries |
Authors: | Stafoggia, Massimo Michelozzi, Paola Schneider, Alexandra Armstrong, Ben Scortichini, Matteo Rai, Masna Archilleos, Souzana Alahmad, Barrak Analitis, Antonis Astrom, Christofer Bell, Michelle L. Calleja, Neville Carlsen, Hanne Krage Carrasco, Gabriel Cauchi, John Paul Coelho, Micheline DSZS Correa, Patricia M. Diaz, Magali H. Entezari, Alireza Forsberg, Bertil Garland, Rebecca M. Guo, Yue Leon Guo, Yuming Hashizume, Masahiro Holobaca, Iulian H. Iniguez, Carmen Jaakkola, Jouni J. K. Haidong, Kan Katsouyanni, Klea Kim, Ho Kysely, Jan Lavigne, Eric Lee, Whanhee Li, Shanshan Maasikmets, Marek Madureira, Joana Mayvaneh, Fatemeh Sheng Ng, Chris Fook Nunes, Baltazar Orru, Hans Ortega, Nicolas V. Osorio, Samuel Palomares, Alfonso D. L. Pan, Shih-Chun Pascal, Mathilde Ragettli, Martina S. Rao, Shilpa Raz, Raanan Roye, Dominic Ryti, Niilo Saldiva, Paulo HN Samoli, Evangelina Schwartz, Joel Scovronick, Noah Sera, Francesco Tobias, Aurelio Tong, Shilu Valencia, Cesar DLC Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria Urban, Ales Gasparrini, Antonio Breitner, Susanne de Donato, Francesca K. |
Keywords: | Upper air temperature Air -- Pollution Epidemiology Mortality |
Issue Date: | 2023 |
Publisher: | Elsevier Ltd |
Citation: | Stafoggia, M., Michelozzi, P., Schneider, A., Armstrong, B., Scortichini, M., Rai, M.,...De'Donato, F. K. (2023). Joint effect of heat and air pollution on mortality in 620 cities of 36 countries. Environment international, 181, 108258. |
Abstract: | Background: The epidemiological evidence on the interaction between heat and ambient air pollution on mortality is still inconsistent. Objectives: To investigate the interaction between heat and ambient air pollution on daily mortality in a large dataset of 620 cities from 36 countries. Methods: We used daily data on all-cause mortality, air temperature, particulate matter ≤ 10 μm (PM10), PM ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone (O3) from 620 cities in 36 countries in the period 1995–2020. We restricted the analysis to the six consecutive warmest months in each city. City-specific data were analysed with over-dispersed Poisson regression models, followed by a multilevel random-effects meta-analysis. The joint association between air temperature and air pollutants was modelled with product terms between non-linear functions for air temperature and linear functions for air pollutants. Results: We analyzed 22,630,598 deaths. An increase in mean temperature from the 75th to the 99th percentile of city-specific distributions was associated with an average 8.9 % (95 % confidence interval: 7.1 %, 10.7 %) mortality increment, ranging between 5.3 % (3.8 %, 6.9 %) and 12.8 % (8.7 %, 17.0 %), when daily PM10 was equal to 10 or 90 μg/m3 , respectively. Corresponding estimates when daily O3 concentrations were 40 or 160 μg/ m3 were 2.9 % (1.1 %, 4.7 %) and 12.5 % (6.9 %, 18.5 %), respectively. Similarly, a 10 μg/m3 increment in PM10 was associated with a 0.54 % (0.10 %, 0.98 %) and 1.21 % (0.69 %, 1.72 %) increase in mortality when daily air temperature was set to the 1st and 99th city-specific percentiles, respectively. Corresponding mortality estimate for O3 across these temperature percentiles were 0.00 % (-0.44 %, 0.44 %) and 0.53 % (0.38 %, 0.68 %). Similar effect modification results, although slightly weaker, were found for PM2.5 and NO2. Conclusions: Suggestive evidence of effect modification between air temperature and air pollutants on mortality during the warm period was found in a global dataset of 620 cities. |
URI: | https://www.um.edu.mt/library/oar/handle/123456789/115110 |
Appears in Collections: | Scholarly Works - FacM&SPH |
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File | Description | Size | Format | |
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Joint_effect_of_heat_and_air_pollution_on_mortality_in_620_cities_of_36_countries_2023.pdf | 2.14 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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