Evaluating economic crisis theory : a comprehensive examination of the Aftalion methodology

Abstract

The Aftalion methodology of economic crisis theory presents a complex and comprehensive understanding of economic crises, the exploration of which is riddled with nuanced considerations and varied perspectives. Primarily, it emphasizes the counterintuitive reality that the precursor to a crisis can be a period of prosperity, a concept that often remains overshadowed by a multitude of economic factors, including price evolutions and various defining economic junctures. Certain theories postulate that this initial phase of prosperity, paradoxically, sows the seeds for an impending crisis, a proposition that invites ample debate and necessitates further empirical validation. Theories focusing solely on the cost of production elements also come under scrutiny in the context of the Aftalion methodology. The theory recognizes the consequential roles of financial market fluctuations, particularly those pertaining to the stock market, alongside the influential forces of monetary and capitalist markets. Further, the state of employment significantly contributes to the shaping of economic conditions, underscoring the necessity of examining these factors in understanding crises. Finally, the methodology posits that variations in the discount rate could be pivotal triggers for economic crises, an assertion that calls for comprehensive investigation. The Aftalion methodology thus provides an exhaustive framework to examine economic crises, inviting scholars and practitioners alike to delve deeper into these mechanisms and their implications.