Defining and assessing the risk of a small island state being harmed by sea-level rise

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to assess the risk of country being harmed by sea-level rise, distinguishing between (a) natural factors, which are associated with inherent vulnerability and (b) policy‐induced or community based measures, which are associated with adaptation. The focus will be on Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are members of the Alliance for Small Island States (AOSIS). It is argued that the distinction is useful as a methodological approach and for policy making. The approach utilised in this paper involves the construction of two indices for vulnerability and adaptation potential respectively and these are juxtaposed to assess the risk of a SIDS to be harmed by sea-level rise. The major findings of this paper are that the SIDS that are the most vulnerable to sea-level rise are those with very limited adaptation potential. The originality of the paper is that it highlights the distinction between natural and man‐made risks in arriving at a total assessment of risk – a distinction of utmost importance for policy making. An important, although obvious, conclusion is that adaptation does not reduce the inherent vulnerability of the countries concerned, but it serves to enable humans to withstand, bounce back from or absorb the effects of vulnerability to climate change.