Reconciliation in Cyprus : the window of opportunity

Abstract

New talks between representatives of the Greek and Turkish communities in Cyprus offer a window of opportunity to resolve the division of the island before a Cypriot state joins the European Union. The terms of a settlement could then be incorporated into the Treaty of Accession to the EU, for ratification by all its member states. The path towards a settlement is now clearer than it has been for a long time, given social and economic developments on the island and recent shifts in opinion within Turkey and Greece. Both Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot communities stand to gain a great deal from a settlement. However, both would lose from a failure. The Cyprus issue remains central to relations between Greece and Turkey; a settlement would provide the basis for a transformation in their relationship. The EU as an institution and EU member states should seize this opportunity to encourage successful negotiations. The accession of Cyprus to the EU as a divided state would risk a crisis on the island, and between Greece and Turkey, which would damage the security of the eastern Mediterranean. This report sketches the outlines of a mutually-acceptable settlement.