Predictive validity of examinations at the Secondary Education Certificate (SEC) level

Abstract

This paper presents the predictive validity of results obtained by 16-year-old Maltese students in the May 2004 Secondary Education Certificate (SEC) examinations in Biology, Chemistry, Physics, Mathematics, Computing, English and Maltese for the Advanced level examinations in these subjects taken by the same students two years later. The study checks whether the SEC level is a good foundation for the higher level, the likelihood of obtaining a high grade at A-level from particular SEC results, possible gender differentials and differentials between students who obtained grades 4 and 5 from optional SEC papers. The results show moderately high predictive validity values ranging from 0.76 to 0.52 and no fixed pattern in the likelihood of obtaining a high A-level grade. No significant gender differences and no fixed pattern of differences in the Advanced level results of students who had obtained SEC grades 4 and 5 from Paper 2A or 2B were noted.