Crime mapping : a Gozitan scenario using the RISC methodology

Abstract

Gauging the risk of crime in a locality is a complex process, that requires an in-depth scientific process to calculate the risk-of-crime status of each spatial area at the different NUTS level s (NUTS 1_2 – Country, NUTS 3 – Island, NUTS 4 – District, NUTS 5 – Local Councils). Gozo has the unique status of occupying both NUTS 3 and NUTS 4 levels, however crime analysis is best carried out at NUTS 4 and NUTS 5 due to the availability of data at those detailed levels. In comparing the Gozo risk of crime to the other areas the method calls for a comparative analysis across all the NUTS 4 and NUTS 5 areas in terms of the national (NUTS 1_2) rates of risk. The model used is based on the RISC (Relative Index of Spatial Crime) Model as developed by Craglia et al (2000). RISC is a dynamic model reviewing each council’s relative position to the national crime rate as based on a scientific process analysing both observed and expected (predicted) rates for the diverse socio-economic, landuse and crime parameters. This allows us to find variations between one locality and another, integrate new datasets, carry out cross-thematic analyses across time and space which will enable the understanding of the social, physical and crime parameters that could be utilized for crime reduction targeting.