Analysing the output of CMIP5 models to assess the future climate of the Maltese islands

Abstract

Faced with the realities of a changing climate, small island states such as the Maltese Islands which are geographically located in a “hotspot” region, are most vulnerable to climate change. Future climate predictions through simulations of the latest climate models will serve as a fundamental factor for local authorities, policy and decision-makers, to better-anticipate the potential future impacts of climate change. The main aim of this study was to-assess future-climate-projections of the Maltese Islands for years 2050 and 2070 for the climatic parameters of: (i) mean-minimum-temperature, (ii) mean-maximum-temperature and (iii) total precipitation. This has been successfully-achieved through the analysis of the latest 11 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models addressing the four Representative-Concentration-Pathways (RCPs), by using the System-for-Automated-Geoscientific-Analyses (SAGA). Another aim was to assess the statistical significance between the 11 CMIP5-model outputs of future predictions for Malta, which was done by clustering-analysis through the Statistical-Package-for-the-Social-Sciences (SPSS). This study shows a gradual increase in both mean minimum and maximum temperatures for-the-projected-years and a strong decrease in totalprecipitation in 2050 with a slight increase in 2070. The 11-CMIP5 modeloutputs were further clustered in two-on the basis of their monthly projections for mean minimum and maximum temperature, and for total-precipitation at 95% confidence level. This is the first comprehensive study in Malta that assesses future climate predictions using 11-CMIP5 models. Thus, this study highlights the importance of increasing the understanding and utilisation of analysing a collective CMIP5 models rather than a single climate model. This increases the precision of future predictions and better frames the suitable adaptation and mitigation measures by local authorities.