Environmental risk assessment : application to a proposed beach nourishment, Malta

Abstract

An Environmental Risk Assessment software package (ERA) was applied to the findings of an Environmental lmpact Statement carried out for a proposed beach nourishment at St George's Bay located on the central Mediterranean Island of Malta. Data produced by typical Environmental Impact. Assessment (EIA i studies are particularly suitable for running this type of risk-assessment tool. In addition. the ERA module was identified as an appropriate mechanism that incorporates scientifically acceptable criteria to confirm or other-wise. by semi-quantitative means. the general conclusions reached by the EIA study. The model acts on estimated probability values derived from Bayesian Theory. Two different sized sediments. fine grained (median diameter 0.17 mm) and coarse grained ( 2.0 mm) Involving potentiai volumes of 13.000 m3 and 6.500 m3, were investigated for positive and negative performance during both construction and post-construction project phases. Findings showed a high probability (0.95) of a mild impact during the post-construction phase with tine-grained sediment as against a high probability (0.86) of a negligible impact with coarse-grained sediment. Evaluations with this model can provide greater clarity and consistency in environmental decision making processes.