Development of a novel tool to predict different water quality scenarios within a Marine Protected Area (MPA) in the Maltese Islands : the 2D SHYFEM-BFM model

Abstract

Effective operational marine conservation and management is thwarted by a lack of financial and human resources. A coupled 2D hydrodynamic (SHYFEM) and ecological (BFM) model was developed in the current study as a Decision Support System (DSS) to spearhead good governance of a Marine Protected Area (MPA) in Dwejra (Maltese Islands) in the Central Mediterranean. Two scenarios were considered

– one with the current levels of nutrient runoff from land and one in which such levels are increased as a result of a greater human activity within the area. Although the developed numerical modeling platform needs to be refined and to be run for a longer time

-frame, its output suggests that it is a promising tool to assist in the operational management

of an MPA.