Assessing global investing risk : a multicriteria preference disaggregation approach

Abstract

The emergence of many new markets in fast-growing regions presents fertile areas for investment growth but also an abundance of obvious and hidden risks. A framework is developed for assessing investment risk in foreign countries. Both multi-variate statistical methods and multi-criteria decision analysis are employed and compared. The latter include the UTADIS family based on disaggregation analysis and a new method, Multi-group Hierarchical DIScrimination (M.H.DIS). They are used to assess investing risk in 51 countries having stock exchanges, according to 27 criteria. The parameters of the developed models are determined so that the results best match the risk rating of those countries by international experienced investors.