The macroeconomic effects of efficiency gains in electricity production in Malta

Abstract

This note studies the impact energy market reforms might have on the Maltese economy in the medium-to-long run using a DSGE model. Contrary to previous studies, this note takes in consideration the changes in the marginal cost of electricity production of Enemalta under a number of energy production setups. Results show that the decommissioning of the Marsa power plant and the installation of an undersea interconnector results in a fall in marginal costs, and therefore an increase in long run output, under both baseline and high oil price scenarios ranging between 1.61% and 2.53%. This energy setup is however consistent with an increase in marginal costs, and therefore a fall in long run output of 0.41% in the case of a low oil price scenario. The future setup of natural gas fired turbines results in a fall in marginal costs and an increase in long run output in all oil price scenarios, ranging between 0.81% in the low oil price scenario to 3.00% in case of high oil prices.