Evaluating tsunami impact on areas of the NE coast of Malta

Abstract

Following the 2003 Zemmouri earthquake and tsunami event in Algeria, acknowledgment and awareness of the term ‘tsunami’ increased amongst Mediterranean scientists, politicians and public alike. Around 10% of the world’s annual tsunami events occur within the Mediterranean Basin and more than 75% of these are generated by earthquakes. Whilst classified as a low-risk zone, the Maltese Islands have experienced damage from certain tsunami events from time to time, most notably the 1693AD seismic-induced tsunami. This dissertation simulates the 1693AD tsunami scenario via COMCOT v1.7 and utilises Matlab scripts and ArcGIS for visualisation purposes. An inundation map is produced for which the Valletta Harbour Area and the Cirkewwa, Mellieha and Xemxija Areas are selected as the areas of study based on the human activity concentration and the population density experienced along these sections of Malta’s NE coast. Whilst both zones encounter a degree of inundation and run-up, the Cirkewwa, Mellieha and Xemxija zone experiences higher flow depth due to shallower waters close to the coast. From this study, 5 locations were identified as the most vulnerable to tsunami damage. These are Ghadira Bay, Ramla tal-Pwales, Qawra Inlet, Marsamxett Harbour and the Grand Harbour. However, certain event-specific parameters like the rupture duration and bottom sea- deformations are retained at their default values rather than altered. Consequently, if these are inputted manually within the COMCOT control file, this study could be rendered more accurate. This leaves ample room for further studies to simulate other local tsunami scenarios as well as to investigate the influences of tsunami backwash on coastal communities.