Assessing climate change scenarios for the central Mediterranean using MAGICC/SCENGEN models

Abstract

Accelerated climate change is threatening ecosystems and mankind in various aspects, leading to an increasing awareness of the need to address its implications. It is believed that the Mediterranean region is a hotspot to these climate changes which therefore increases the need to predict potential implications that this region may face. Model simulations enable authorities and decision-makers to formulate the necessary measures which need to be taken in order to address these effects. The main aim of this study was to assess future climate projections of the central Mediterranean. This has been achieved by using 20 atmosphere-ocean general circulation models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) to address different scenarios from the Special Report on Emission scenarios (SRES). These were available in a software package known as MAGICC/SCENGEN v. 5.3. MAGICC to simulate temperature, CO2 concentrations and sea level change displays for the years 2020-2100. SCENGEN was used to simulate seasonal projections for temperature, pressure and precipitation over the central Mediterranean for the years 2050, 2070 and 2090. Although there have been studies on the Mediterranean region, this is the first study which covers the central Mediterranean in such detail when simulating future climate predictions using the newest version of MAGICC/SCENGEN. Thus, the aim of this dissertation was to increases the awareness and understanding of CMIP3 models and assess their relative performance and the reliability of the projections on future climate, both on regional and local scales. Outcomes from this study also highlight areas where adaptation and mitigation measures should be formed by authorities in order to address changes in future climate.