Analysis of investment risks as a complex system using fuzzy logic and uncertainty management methods

Abstract

Purpose: In order to effectively handle complex projects, managers need to adopt a pluralistic approach to practice. They should be able to use a wide range of tools and ways of thinking to develop their own methods, their own practice models, freely, according to the needs of a project. The article is aimed at presenting the comprehensive approach in evaluating and analyzing investment risks. Design/Methodology/Approach: When studying the use of fuzzy logic methods, it is necessary to determine the main drawbacks and limitations of the current economic and mathematical models, as well as methods for evaluating the effectiveness and risks of projects. Findings: Using fuzzy logic, authors analyzed risk categories in two key stages by examining the net present value index. Authors applied the method of risk assessment based on the integrated risk assessment V&M, forming full range of investment scenarios and determining the unacceptable risk values. Practical Implications: The authors’ approach could be applied in predicting changes in economic activity under the influence of external and internal factors. Originality/Value: The study highlights the key features of fuzzy logic methods in analyzing projects when processes are difficult to formalize, and subjective criteria exist.