The Arab Middle East and the West : where to from here?

Abstract

In January 2011 the Arab Uprisings brought into sharp focus a decades-long process of social and economic change that had largely been denied effective political expression in most of the Arab non-oil exporting countries of the region. Irrespective of possible political developments in the aftermath of that period, the future of most Arab countries now clearly hinges on a conundrum: in all but a few cases, reform to improve the capacity of states to meet the challenges ahead is essential, because all the alternatives are worse; but the pursuit of such reform is certain to affect long-established political, economic and social arrangements, and the privileges and interests of those who have been the primary beneficiaries of those systems. There are too many variables attached to regional politics in the Middle East to permit one to move with even modest confidence beyond the explanatory function of social science into the far more hazardous business of prediction. Common sense requires considerable caution in foreshadowing the ways in which current and emerging issues will come together, and be addressed, by the region and its leaders in coming years.