The vulnerable Iran nuclear deal : a failure in the two-level game

Abstract

Recent statements and decisions by the Trump Administration have signaled the Administration’s willingness to destabilize the Iran nuclear deal. These events have been viewed through a variety of lenses in an attempt to both understand why current decisions were made, but also in an attempt to predict future action. The Administration’s positions have been seen alternately as isolationist or heavy handed, as ignoring the international community and international commitments or putting America first. But the Trump administration’s ability to back away from an international obligation is founded in what I believe is a political not a policy failure. It reflects the inability of the Obama Administration to sell the Iran Nuclear deal to the American public and their elected representatives, in terms that made the vastly complicated technical deal comprehensible to a public whose attention span is limited. More importantly, the Obama Administration did not fulfill the requirements of two level negotiation needed to bring the internal political constituency onboard and to get them committed to the deal as the best alternative.