Malta’s changing demographics : projecting Malta’s future health system demands to 2030

Abstract

Malta’s health system is constantly adapting to challenges. Recent demographic changes are delineated by an ageing native population and a mass inflow of foreign workers. These economic immigrants have contributed significantly to the solid growth of Malta’s economy, but have also added significant pressure on its infrastructure, including on the health care system. Using a purely demographic model, linear projections of health care demands were built using adjusted population projections by age-group and gender until 2030. Projections indicate that attendances at the Accident and Emergency Department, Primary Health Care Centres and psychiatric outpatient clinics will continue to increase, together with cancer incidence rates, a major health cost driver. Projected total number of births and attendances at the genito-urinary clinic are expected to decrease. Hospital admissions and bed night use is mostly driven by the ageing population who are expected to exert a strong pressure on public health care spending. Significant policy and infrastructure responses are likely to be required to increase capacity of the primary health sector as well as to address bed shortages.