The future of the European Union : demisting the debate

Abstract

Does Europe have a collective future, or will the coming years be marked by increasingly incoherent developments within the heterogeneous EU? There is no denying that the second decade of this century has seen a strong mood shift away from the inter-dependence and concerted actions that guided Europe’s national governments since the end of World War II, and then since the fall of the Berlin Wall. What connections, if any, are there between the paroxysms of Brexit in the UK and the varying shades of populism in continental Europe? The common denominator may simply be the painful economic pressures resulting from waning global competitiveness. It is clear that the high ideals of the European project no longer exert the same political pull. The EU’s dreams of progressing almost seamlessly from a trading zone to a shared political economy are not being realised. Where are the convergence policies that would exert centripetal rather than centrifugal forces? Where is the appetite for reforms leading to political union, and whatever happened to the idea of Europeans speaking with one voice? If the EU continues along its present path, the verdict of history may well be that it achieved little more than the welter of regulations needed to ensure trade flows. In geopolitical terms, Europe as a major player on the world stage may have been an illusion largely created by aggregating national statistics.