COVID-19 : a view from China

Abstract

MARCH 1, 2020 (WITH MINOR UPDATES ON MARCH 29, 2020) Since this article was first published online, a month has passed and that is a long time for COVID-19. Malta has gone from zero to 149 cases and the number will have grown by the time this appears in print. Figure 1 sets the number of cases in Malta epidemic against those in Hong Kong SAR (China) and Singapore. The rise in the Hong Kong SAR and Singapore figures relate to a rise in imported cases, but also to some efforts to relax the stringent constraints on population movement. The curves illustrate the speed with which the epidemic can take off and emphasise how important it is for the population not to become complacent, and to strictly adhere to the public health guidance to stay at home. With the extensive preparations being made in Malta, and the cooperation of the general public, it is hoped that the line in Malta will remain flat and avoid the rapid take off. As has been shown elsewhere, a flat, long drawn out epidemic curve is associated with lower mortality and much lower costs to society. [excerpt]