Adapting to climate change within an informal urban settlement in a least developed country : effects of a foreign aid intervention and policy implications

Abstract

Least Developed Countries (LDCs) will be heavily impacted by climate change, and the challenge of fostering their development will be more difficult as a result. Enhancing adaptive capacity has been identified as an essential policy response, especially if integrated with development planning. But what this means for specific communities, such as Informal Urban Settlements (IUSs), is still largely unknown. Lack of data and research capacity remains a major problem. The world’s most impoverished and vulnerable communities are frequently neglected in research on impacts and adaptation. Furthermore, given the interdisciplinary nature of adaptive capacity, there has not been yet a clear identification of a methodological framework capable of operationalising the assessment of adaptive capacity at the local level. This too delays the comprehensive understanding of how specific development interventions can enhance it. This thesis investigates adaptive capacity by proposing a new methodological framework that allows the characterisation and measurement of adaptive capacity at the local level. The context is an IUS in the LDC of Ethiopia. Specifically, the thesis has the objective of assessing whether the impact of a Biogas Water, Hygiene and Sanitation (BWASH) development intervention, inclusive of training, is capable of building adaptive capacity that endures. It is postulated that adaptive capacity can indeed be enhanced with such intervention, with training playing a key role to augment outcomes. In answering this question, and in testing the hypotheses, the thesis additionally identifies a series of factors, key to the assessment of adaptive capacity, and scarcely captured by comparable research in IUSs of LDCs, namely: i. key livelihood resources, defined as the combination of assets required for a means of living; ii. shocks, defined as sudden events over which there is no control, and the correspondent impacts; iii. existing coping strategies to those shocks and the extent of their sustainability; and iv. alternative sustainable coping strategies. The thesis employs a mixed methodology including both qualitative participatory methods and a quantitative (quasi-experimental) assessment of the effect of intervention using matching techniques. The research involves two waves of original data collection, both of which involved household surveys (N=400).