Unemployment rate in Poland and USA during COVID-19 pandemic : a case study

Abstract

Purpose: The paper analyses the literature on research in unemployment, COVID-19 pandemic, and economic security. The paper focuses on the analysis, evaluation, and forecasting of unemployment rates in Poland and the USA regarding the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and economic security. Design/Methodology/Approach: The preliminary research was carried out by analyzing the monthly exchange rates of the dollar, ruble, euro, and yen for the period 2004-2020. All preliminary studies in the form of analyses of exchange rate quotations and oil prices are presented in one linear chart to observe the trends governing them in dynamic terms. Then, the analysis and assessment of unemployment rates in Poland and the USA were carried out monthly in 2010-2020. Regularities could be seen in the mass phenomena being observed. The forecasting will be carried out by using a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods. Findings: The COVID-19 pandemic has caused the world economies to slow down due to border closures, the suspension of international passenger transport, and restrictions on buying and selling in a global approach. The continuing restrictions related to the suspension of air traffic have resulted in a lack of demand for energy resources in diesel fuel. The phenomenon observed has caused world oil prices to fall to their lowest level in many years. The proclamation of the pandemic has also had an impact on strong increases and decreases in exchange rate quotations. This proclamation, in turn, has resulted in an increase in unemployment in many world economies. Practical Implications: This paper analyzes, evaluates, and forecasts unemployment rates in Poland and the USA for August and September 2020 during the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in terms of economic security. Originality: The prices are analyzed before and after the COVID-19 outbreak.