The demand for football : an econometric analysis of stadium attendance in five countries

Abstract

Stadium attendance is a fundamental manifestation of the demand for football. Through a stadium attendance analysis, this study sought to analyse football demand in the major five European football leagues by configuring a model which incorporates the match quality and incentive factors that determine stadium attendance. This was achieved through an econometric analysis performed on cross-sectional data pertaining to the 2018-2019 season, the most recent for which attendance figures are available. Guided by individual variable and overall model significance together with theoretical principles established in literature, the combination of variables deemed to best represent the dimensions of stadium attendance was identified and employed in the estimation of league specific stadium attendance models. While for most match quality and incentive factors results confirmed the positive relationship expected, two unanticipated insights emerged. Firstly, derbies and matches involving promoted teams appear to depress attendances. Secondly, distance travelled for a match, the interval between matches at the same stadium, and the stage of the season in which a game takes place emerged as insignificant incentives to attendance. League-specific regressions were complemented by a grand stadium attendance function for the Big Five European leagues. This showed a marked difference in average stadium attendance across the leagues. Respecifying the primary model to distinguish between home team and away team effects on attendance clearly showed that home team-related variables are the bigger contributor to stadium attendance. In light of this, a more parsimonious home team model was estimated and put forward. Results from this study suggest that spectators prefer high-scoring games dominated by home teams which are in contention for titles and European football. Due to their pivotal role in securing attendances, sporting success and entertaining performances should therefore be a primary objective for football clubs. Furthermore, results suggest that club owners should ensure that stadia are financially accessible. Optimisation of stadium attendance through these policy recommendations should be duly considered by the relevant stakeholders given the contribution of stadium attendance to fans’ welfare.