A manpower forecasting approach to educational planning in Malta

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to estimate the supply of and the demand for manpower in Malta between 1973 and 1980 and to assess their respective adequacy both quantitatively and qualitatively vis-a-vis each other. The main objective is to derive some concrete conclusions in terms of educational planning. The data on which the study is based is the November 1973 Manpower Survey carried out by the Department of Labour and Emigration and the Development Plan for Malta 1973-80. Other data was collected and computed from official published statistics. Various informal discussions were held with government officials. The text starts by attempting to set out briefly the theoretical background of manpower forecasting. Chapter II deals with the projections of the total labour force and the use of such projections as a point of departure for both supply and demand. Manpower demand forecasting is dealt with in Chapter III; while chapter IV deals with techniques used for comparing estimates of future supply and demand and with the derivation of guide lines for educational planning, vocational guidance, etc., from the forecast results. A critical reader would be completely justified in finding this study and the approach to manpower forecasting reflected by it, at one time superficial and over-ambitious. This is so, however, partly by necessity and partly by deliberate choice.

Official planners and policy makers in the education and manpower field have to take decisions notwithstanding the degree of sophistication of the available data. Since no such manpower forecasting approach to educational planning has yet been initiated, it was thought that a preliminary study, which tries to present the available data more systematically - crude as this may be at first - ·would be worth undertaking. Of course more serious work on this subject is needed for any real progress to be possible.