Lessons from the 2008 Sichang earthquake about modelling of seismic input

Abstract

􀂃 Earthquakes, as many other natural disasters, have both immediate and long-term economic effects. Within a fraction of a minute, single earthquakes can inflict damage to houses, business, government buildings, and infrastructures. A single earthquake may trigger a global ecological catastrophe, cause up to thousands of casualties and global economic depression: the disruption of commerce will affect the rate of economic growth, inflation, productivity and trade balance. 􀂃 Case studies of seismic hazard assessment (SHA) techniques indicate the limits of the currently used methodologies, deeply rooted in engineering practice, based on a probabilistic approach. The probabilistic analysis supplies indications that can be useful but not sufficiently reliable to characterize the seismic hazard.