The Shia ascendance within Iraq : a history of oppression followed by empowerment, and its wider implications

Abstract

At the time of writing, the Iraq conflict remains one of the world's most pressing issues, being responsible for broader effects that go far beyond its borders. The US invasion of Iraq "broke the thick crust that had accreted over that country and region as a whole and released powerful subterranean forces. The emergence of the Shia after decades, if not centuries of marginalisation was perhaps the most profound outcome. The purpose of my research is to explore one of the War's most potent outcomes: the issue of the 'Shia Revival' that has taken place within Iraq. My research gives a historical account of this community's experience under Sunni authoritarian and dictatorial rule, especially their plight under Saddam and his Baathist regime. An explanation of how democratic mechanisms imported through an Anglo-Saxon invasion were able to bring this community to power for the first time in an Arab state is also dealt with. Finally, my study traces the post-invasion events that have taken place within Iraq and how this resurgence amongst Iraqi Shias has brought a resounding crisis. The importance of this topic to international relations is evident in the fact that it has the potential to breed the direst of consequences for Iraq, the region and the world. On Iraq's domestic scene the removal of Saddam's dictatorship has allowed for a less than peaceful transfer of power from Iraq's Sunni community to the majority Shi'ites that has led to both sectarian conflict as well as a deadlock on political negotiations. Such matters of constitutional debate include the distribution of Iraq's oil and the question of regional autonomy. The fact that Iraq could head down the path of partition, much like the post- World War I multi-religious and multi-ethnic states of Europe, could have serious consequences for the balance of power in the Middle East. Moreover the prospect of a sectarian war fought out as a proxy between Sunni Arab regimes and Iran has the potential to become a very real scenario, especially if the US were to withdraw. Moreover this would have profound implications for US-Tran relations. The consequences of such a war for the world are evident in the fact that much of the potential fighting would centre on the oil regions of the Middle East.