The Russian 'near-abroad' and security developments in the European Union Baltic States

Abstract

This dissertation identifies the key security developments within the Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia in response to the increased manifestation of Russia's 'near-abroad' foreign policy- a policy which directly affects the republics which used to formed part of the Soviet Union. Russia's determination to maintain ex-Soviet states firmly within its sphere of influence reached its peak when it annexed Crimea on March 18th 2014. This annexation and increasing evidence of Russia's involvement in the conflict in Eastern Ukraine has led the Baltic Trio to reconsider their countries' security and to adapt their security strategies. This dissertation focuses on the security consequences of increased Russian interest in its Western 'near-abroad', on the small Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. It also analyses the extent to which the Baltic Trio try to influence the European Union's relations with Russia and how they use their involvement in institutions such as NATO and the United Nations to reinforce their defences. These research objectives are carried out through a triangulation of qualitative and quantitative analysis with the first type being the prevalent type of research conducted. Interviews were held with two Lithuanian officials, an Estonian official and a Latvian official all serving at their respective countries' Permanent Representations to the European Union. One interview was also held with a Russian official serving at the Embassy of the Russian Federation to Malta to balance out the narratives of the Baltic representatives. The research also used quantitative sources of data, notably expenditures quoted in the Baltic Trio's security strategies, related documents and news reports. The information collected has been used to compile three case studies, one on each Baltic state, to analyse the developments which occurred in each one and to identify which international institutions are most useful in bolstering the Baltic Trio's security environment. These case studies include an overview of the implications of the three states' membership in NATO, the United Nations and the European Union; the main aspects of their relationships with the Russia Federation; a summary of the socio-legal situation of Russian minority groups; and an overview o the most important, recent security policies instituted. These case studies are then compared to gain insight into the most effective policies adopted by each state.