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DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.author | Meletti, Carlo | - |
dc.contributor.author | Marzocchi, Warner | - |
dc.contributor.author | Lanzano, Giovanni | - |
dc.contributor.author | Luzi, Lucia | - |
dc.contributor.author | Martinelli, Francesco | - |
dc.contributor.author | Pace, Bruno | - |
dc.contributor.author | Rovida, Andrea | - |
dc.contributor.author | Taroni, Matteo | - |
dc.contributor.author | Visini, Francesco | - |
dc.contributor.author | D'Amico, Sebastiano | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2022-05-02T08:33:04Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2022-05-02T08:33:04Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2021 | - |
dc.identifier.citation | Meletti, C., Marzocchi, W., D'amico, V., Lanzano, G., Luzi, L., Martinelli, F., ... Seno, S. (2021). The new Italian seismic hazard model (MPS19). Annals of Geophysics, 64(1), SE112. | en_GB |
dc.identifier.uri | https://www.um.edu.mt/library/oar/handle/123456789/94749 | - |
dc.description.abstract | We describe the main structure and outcomes of the new probabilistic seismic hazard model for Italy, MPS19 [Modello di Pericolosità Sismica, 2019]. Besides to outline the probabilistic framework adopted, the multitude of new data that have been made available after the preparation of the previous MPS04, and the set of earthquake rate and ground motion models used, we give particular emphasis to the main novelties of the modeling and the MPS19 outcomes. Specifically, we (i) introduce a novel approach to estimate and to visualize the epistemic uncertainty over the whole country; (ii) assign weights to each model components (earthquake rate and ground motion models) according to a quantitative testing phase and structured experts’ elicitation sessions; (iii) test (retrospectively) the MPS19 outcomes with the horizontal peak ground acceleration observed in the last decades, and the macroseismic intensities of the last centuries; (iv) introduce a pioneering approach to build MPS19_cluster, which accounts for the effect of earthquakes that have been removed by declustering. Finally, to make the interpretation of MPS19 outcomes easier for a wide range of possible stakeholders, we represent the final result also in terms of probability to exceed 0.15 g in 50 years. | en_GB |
dc.language.iso | en | en_GB |
dc.publisher | INGV | en_GB |
dc.rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess | en_GB |
dc.subject | Earthquake hazard analysis -- Italy | en_GB |
dc.subject | Probabilities -- Mathematical models | en_GB |
dc.subject | Ensemble learning (Machine learning) | en_GB |
dc.subject | Earthquake prediction | en_GB |
dc.title | The new Italian seismic hazard model (MPS19) | en_GB |
dc.type | article | en_GB |
dc.rights.holder | The copyright of this work belongs to the author(s)/publisher. The rights of this work are as defined by the appropriate Copyright Legislation or as modified by any successive legislation. Users may access this work and can make use of the information contained in accordance with the Copyright Legislation provided that the author must be properly acknowledged. Further distribution or reproduction in any format is prohibited without the prior permission of the copyright holder. | en_GB |
dc.contributor.corpauthor | MPS19 Working Group | en_GB |
dc.description.reviewed | peer-reviewed | en_GB |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.4401/ag-8579 | - |
dc.publication.title | Annals of Geophysics | en_GB |
Appears in Collections: | Scholarly Works - FacSciGeo |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
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The new Italian seismic hazard model.pdf | 6.56 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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