Insects, such as bees, burrowing sand crickets, and butterflies, are fundamental to our ecosystems, playing crucial roles that extend beyond the environment to sectors like agriculture.
Researchers from the Institute of Earth Systems at the University of Malta are examining the effects of climate change on these ecosystems, with a particular focus on insects in small island environments like Malta.
Dr James Ciarlò, a climate expert and researcher, explained that the PALEOSIM Project utilises climate models, or sophisticated computer programs, to look back thousands of years and compare different historical periods. This allows researchers to analyse which climate conditions insects favour the most.
The research delves as far back as 20,000 years, to the glacial era when Malta was still connected to Sicily.
By understanding how various climates influenced insect populations in the past, researchers hope to predict how future climate scenarios might impact these species.
Dr Ciarlò noted that data from these models is being adapted into a unique method developed for the project, enabling a detailed analysis of insects' preferred climates. However, he emphasised that a favorable climate alone does not guarantee the presence of these insects. Other factors, such as food availability, competition from other species, and human impact, also play significant roles.
One of the key species being studied is the burrowing sand cricket. Although there is evidence that recent climate changes have been beneficial for this cricket, its population continues to decline. This paradox presents an opportunity to further investigate the reasons behind the decline.
Dr Ciarlò also mentioned that by the end of January 2025, the research team will collaborate with Esplora to present the project's findings to the public. This initiative aims to help the community understand the historical climate trends of the Maltese islands and the future projections, fostering a greater appreciation of climate impacts on insects and the importance of their protection.