Ciarlo`, J. (2010). B.Sc. (Hons) Dissertation. Validation of the PRECIS regional climate model: Analysis of the climate impacts caused by sulfate aerosol in the atmosphere.
 
Supervisor: Dr N. Aquilina
Co-supervisor: Prof. C. V. Sammut

Abstract

The regional climate model PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies) was used to study the impact of sulfate aerosols within the atmosphere of the Mediterranean region. The Mediterranean is a very unique area; a closed body of water surrounded by three major continents and enclosed almost entirely within a large mountain range. The magnitude and persistence of the aerosol’s effects can be influenced by the region containing the sulfate aerosol. Several parameters were studied to evaluate the performance of PRECIS involving the sulfur cycle. These included: changes in skin temperature, downward shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiation, diurnal temperature range (DTR), cloud liquid water (CLW) content, precipitation and relative humidity (RH).

PRECIS was used to produce a hindcast simulation of various meteorological parameters from 1960-1990. Spatial plots of the above-mentioned parameters were compared with measured data in order to validate the model. Statistical analysis was used to obtain the significance of some of the parameters with respect to various aerosol modes to detect the model’s interpretation of the aerosol effects. The study was extended by analysing the outcome of SO2 within three future scenarios of the year 2081, as well as comparing the effect of sulfate on SW radiation from 2070-2100 using a scenario that considers intermediate economic growth and considers a society that is environmentally sustainable.