Investigating precipitation trends across the central Mediterranean Region

Abstract

In recent years, precipitation patterns have been fluctuating due to climate change. Therefore this study focused on analysing precipitation trends in the central Mediterranean region. Meteorological data from six weather stations was examined and the analysis covered the period up to 2022. The study specifically looked at two climatic indices, namely Total Monthly Precipitation (PR) and the Number of Wet Days (R>1mm) at both annual and seasonal scales. To ensure data quality, data was gathered from various sources and was checked for accuracy. Statistical methods were applied to assess the normality of the dataset and determine the significance of the precipitation trends. A confidence level of 90% and a significance level of 0.1 were chosen for the analysis. Detecting trends proved challenging due to data homogeneity and therefore uncertainties still persist. However, clear evidence emerged of decreasing trends in both precipitation indices during the spring and winter seasons. In contrast, statistically significant increasing precipitation trends were observed for both indices during summer and autumn. From an annual perspective, the R>1mm index showed an increasing trend while the PR index indicated a decreasing trend in most stations, although some of these trends were not statistically significant. Overall, the study concluded that climate change is impacting the central Mediterranean region, resulting in drier winters and wetter summers. Given the high variability of precipitation, the study highlights the importance of regularly examining long-term climatic trends and recommends further exploration of precipitation patterns in the central Mediterranean. This information can provide valuable insights for scientific assessments and policy-making by relevant authorities.